“Security as Societal Science”: Critical infrastructure and supply chain research driven by societal factors
In 2035 security management has become a risk-driven process. Collaboration between international organisations, Member States, EU bodies, civil society organisations and the private sector via security data compilation, crowd sourcing and information sharing has led to the establishment of a harmonised risk management approach at EU and Member States’ level. This covers both preparedness and response.
The EU 2035 faces strong demands for critical infrastructure by politics, industry, and society: Critical infrastructures and supply chains are desired to be designed adaptable to social change and evolving citizens’ security needs and resilient to negative effects of interdependencies within Europe and with critical infrastructures in third countries. Broad-scale scale-public private partnerships are put in place for development and implementation of critical infrastructures, and supporting research, to meet these demands and close security gaps. Critical infrastructures are also desired and required to have a harmonized all-hazard driven security management approach, covering the full crisis management cycle and societal consequences of breakdown.
The EU recognizes the high degree of interconnectivity and interdependency with third-country infrastructures (especially regarding energy, raw materials and food supply chains). It thus seeks a legislative framework that supports inter-institutional and international coordination of critical infrastructure and supply chain protection. It also seeks the adaptability of critical infrastructures and supply chains to societal factors changes, evolving security conditions and the gaps that emerge from these. Policy focuses on developing rapid response mechanisms to manage social stress caused by supply chain disruptions.
A significant strand of Security Research has developed into a social science discipline addressing the influence of societal factors on security strategies. The public perception of security technologies and their benefits for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection still varies greatly across the Member States. This calls for increasing societal awareness through risk communication and citizen education, particularly in view of the potential loss of public trust in institutions and agencies at national and European level should critical infrastructures of supply lines fail.
A comprehensive approach to creating resilience of infrastructures and societies is needed, and new public funding mechanisms for technologies to close security gaps are under review. However, much of this responsibility in 2035 has shifted to the private sector and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Governments relay heavily on the latter for analysis of supply chain and their interdependencies, management and resilience. Policy objectives include a comprehensive cataloguing of critical supplies for the European economy, along with the factors that could disrupt the supply of these materials to the EU.
Though technologies in 2035 have seen improvements and new options for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection, the EU’s decision-making process for emergencies is still too cumbersome. Better technological solutions in the form of visualisation tools are needed to support the monitoring of large-scale interdependencies between critical infrastructures and supply chain networks.
To minimise the impact of security incidents on these infrastructures, and to mitigate long-term social, political and economic impacts of breakdown and disruption, the EU and its Member States have agreed to a mutual support system based on openness and cooperation. Security research thus includes organisational studies about incident awareness and the most optimal managerial and decision-making structures. Experience has shown that data integration can also augment related costs and create security gaps by increasing the size and complexity of the design required. Security Research assesses the pros and cons of various levels of data integration from the point of view of cost and trade-off between complexity and size. Indeed, research focuses also focuses on the interdependencies lying along the EU’s internal-external security continuum. This calls for scenario-related cross-border simulations of incidents involving supranational supply chain networks, with advanced risk assessment methodologies that reflect unexpected changes such as new threats or breakdowns of interconnected infrastructures – an effort that knits together a broad range of disciplines, from physical and logistical security to threats to human safety and the environment.
In 2035 security management has become a risk-driven process. Collaboration between international organisations, Member States, EU bodies, civil society organisations and the private sector via security data compilation, crowd sourcing and information sharing has led to the establishment of a harmonised risk management approach at EU and Member States’ level. This covers both preparedness and response.
The EU 2035 faces strong demands for critical infrastructure by politics, industry, and society: Critical infrastructures and supply chains are desired to be designed adaptable to social change and evolving citizens’ security needs and resilient to negative effects of interdependencies within Europe and with critical infrastructures in third countries. Broad-scale scale-public private partnerships are put in place for development and implementation of critical infrastructures, and supporting research, to meet these demands and close security gaps. Critical infrastructures are also desired and required to have a harmonized all-hazard driven security management approach, covering the full crisis management cycle and societal consequences of breakdown.
The EU recognizes the high degree of interconnectivity and interdependency with third-country infrastructures (especially regarding energy, raw materials and food supply chains). It thus seeks a legislative framework that supports inter-institutional and international coordination of critical infrastructure and supply chain protection. It also seeks the adaptability of critical infrastructures and supply chains to societal factors changes, evolving security conditions and the gaps that emerge from these. Policy focuses on developing rapid response mechanisms to manage social stress caused by supply chain disruptions.
A significant strand of Security Research has developed into a social science discipline addressing the influence of societal factors on security strategies. The public perception of security technologies and their benefits for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection still varies greatly across the Member States. This calls for increasing societal awareness through risk communication and citizen education, particularly in view of the potential loss of public trust in institutions and agencies at national and European level should critical infrastructures of supply lines fail.
A comprehensive approach to creating resilience of infrastructures and societies is needed, and new public funding mechanisms for technologies to close security gaps are under review. However, much of this responsibility in 2035 has shifted to the private sector and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Governments relay heavily on the latter for analysis of supply chain and their interdependencies, management and resilience. Policy objectives include a comprehensive cataloguing of critical supplies for the European economy, along with the factors that could disrupt the supply of these materials to the EU.
Though technologies in 2035 have seen improvements and new options for critical infrastructure and supply chain protection, the EU’s decision-making process for emergencies is still too cumbersome. Better technological solutions in the form of visualisation tools are needed to support the monitoring of large-scale interdependencies between critical infrastructures and supply chain networks.
To minimise the impact of security incidents on these infrastructures, and to mitigate long-term social, political and economic impacts of breakdown and disruption, the EU and its Member States have agreed to a mutual support system based on openness and cooperation. Security research thus includes organisational studies about incident awareness and the most optimal managerial and decision-making structures. Experience has shown that data integration can also augment related costs and create security gaps by increasing the size and complexity of the design required. Security Research assesses the pros and cons of various levels of data integration from the point of view of cost and trade-off between complexity and size. Indeed, research focuses also focuses on the interdependencies lying along the EU’s internal-external security continuum. This calls for scenario-related cross-border simulations of incidents involving supranational supply chain networks, with advanced risk assessment methodologies that reflect unexpected changes such as new threats or breakdowns of interconnected infrastructures – an effort that knits together a broad range of disciplines, from physical and logistical security to threats to human safety and the environment.
- Scenario drivers
Scenario background information